Toscana Country Club 2018 Annual Report
*CLICK HERE To view my entire Quarterly Report including STATISTICAL REPORTS, or select “View PDF Document” located to the right of this page under my photo.
Happy New Year! It has been a strong year for sales in Toscana. As we take a look back over the last couple of years, we can see a steady increase in sales and prices. In 2016 twenty-three existing homes sold and in 2017 there were thirty-two homes sold, with four of the homes SPEC. Toscana finishes 2018 with thirty-eight existing homes sold, five of these homes were SPEC homes. This is up 127% from the total number of homes sold in 2017. We have noticed that all the 7 higher end country clubs that we track, all have seen an increase in number of sales for 2018 vs 2017. Toscana ranks number 4 with sales growth. This is good news for the million dollar plus markets.
The average sales price this past year was $1,956,374, which is up 6.2% from 2017. Sales of existing homes were 127% of the total in 2017. The average price per square foot at the end of 2018 was $461. 2017 ended at $436/sq foot and 2016 ended at 435/sq foot. A definite trend happening each year with homes being sold for more.
Comparatively, the urban areas of Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle to name a few are experiencing a slowdown. The main reason for the slowdown is affordability. These markets have experienced such a burst in home appreciation over the past few years that younger buyers simply cannot afford the homes in these markets. We expect home values to drop in these areas and over time lead to better affordability. The positive news for the desert real estate market is that our properties remain a very good buy. The price a buyer will pay for an equivalent square foot home in the desert is considerably less than what they would pay in a metro area. Our home values have remained relatively flat over the past seven years with a gradual increase in home values for those homes that have been recently upgraded. We have also seen a lot of interest in sellers trading up or down for a larger or smaller home.
In addition to the urban markets mentioned above, the fourth quarter has seen the national housing market shift into a lower gear. This is not necessarily a negative, but more of a correction due to the increase in home values. We may not experience as much growth as we have seen in 2018, but that does not mean we are heading for an economic collapse. The real estate market collapsed in 2008 largely due to bad lending practices. Many different lending guidelines have been implemented since then to protect the buyers in hopes that we never repeat the big boom followed by the dramatic crash of the market.
The average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate “Jumbo” loan, greater than $453,100 rose to 5.01% with a 20% cash down payment. The average mortgage rate for an Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) rose to its highest level since 2011, 4.47% up from September’s ARM rate of 4.34%. Millennials will account for 45% of mortgages, with baby boomers a 17% and Gen Xers at 37%.
In California, existing single-family home sales in November totaled 381,400 properties, down 3.9% from October and down 13.4% from November 2017. The median home price was $554,760, down 3% from October and up 1.5% from November 2017. Within the six counties of Southern California, the median home value in Riverside County jumped 6.1% to $380,000. Statewide active listings rose for the 8th straight month, increasing 31% from the previous year. As of November, year to date sales were down 4.6%. The average days to sell a home in California rose from 22 days to 28 days. The average statewide price per square foot for an existing single-family home was $282 in November 2018, up from $277 in November 2017.
The housing forecast for 2019 in California indicates a modest decline of 3.2% in existing home sales. The California Association of Realtors (CAR) predicts the median home price will increase by 3.1% to $593,450 in 2019. With home appreciation tapering back and inventory improving, serious buyers are in a better position to purchase.
Looking at the Coachella Valley Home Sales Evaluation, 10,295 homes sold in 2018. This is the highest number of homes sold since 2005. Homes under $500,000 represent the largest volume with approximately 72.5%. Homes selling for more than $500,000 were at 27.5%, the highest since 2007. We ended the 4th quarter of 2018 selling 2,035 homes. This represents 247 fewer homes sold than in the 4th quarter of 2017.
If you look at the “Sales Update by Cities Report”, 11 of the 14 Multiple Listing Areas (MLS) in the desert show an appreciation in average sales price while the number of homes sold are down. The “Country Club Home Sales Appreciation” shows that of the 19 country clubs we track, 11 clubs sold more homes in 2018 than in 2017. Average sales appreciation or depreciation did not appear to relate to the total number of sales in each country club. Approximately 71 more homes over $1 million dollars sold in 2018 representing a 12% increase.
I am pleased to announce that as of the first of January, Allison Renz and Heather Wong are now my partners. Their hard work and dedication have awarded them the opportunity to share in the operation of my business. Allison, Heather and I along with our other team members Terrie, Kristeen, Laura and Frank are readily available to assist you whether you are selling, buying or just have a real estate question.
Our goal is to represent your best interest in getting you the best value for a home in an ever-changing market and are available to you whenever our services are needed.
Diane R. Baxter, Associate Broker/Executive Luxury Director
Diane Williams & Associates
Bennion Deville Homes Indian Wells Luxury Homes & Estates Division