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Toscana Country Club 2017 Annual Report

January 2018

*CLICK HERE To view my entire Quarterly Report including STATISTICAL REPORTS, or select “View PDF Document” located to the right of this page under my photo.

Happy New Year!!! And welcome to another great season in Toscana and the desert.

Nationally, home prices have risen 5 to 6% each year over the past two years, well above the average 3%. There is no evidence of another real estate bubble, so now is the time to purchase a home. Since 2011 we have been on a steady climb of recovery across the nation and state. The real estate market at present appears to be the least volatile over the past 40 years. Unfortunately, the increase in the number of home sales is being slowed down by the lack of inventory. Nationally, homes selling for over $500,000 represent about 13.7% of the total sales. In the Coachella Valley it represents 24.6%. With a 4.9 month’s supply and “slower new home construction, sales will continue to severely trail underlying demand” according to John Seymour, (retired Senator) in “What’s Hot What’s Not”.  The real estate market in California has a 3.4 month’ s supply with the same demand and lower inventory as the national market. The buyers in California consist of 31% Millennials (20-37); 40% Generation X (38-52); 24% Baby Boomers (53-71) and 4% Silent Generation (72 and older). Approximately 71% of the International Buyers in California are buying in Southern California while 29% are buying in other areas of the state. About 22% of the buyers are paying cash. Investors represent 17.9% of the buyers with 24% flipping homes while 75% lease the home.

The housing forecast for 2018 in California indicates prices will appreciate; the inventory will continue to drop; the number of home sales will increase; mortgage rates will rise and buyer affordability will continue to drop. The biggest challenges in 2018 will be lack of inventory and lack of buyer affordability. Inventory continues to drop about 10% each month and has trended downward for the past two years.

Consumer confidence is at its highest in over 17 years. Goldman and Sachs predict economic growth to be 4% in 2018. The major provisions in the tax reform bill include lowering the maximum corporate tax rate to 21%; eliminating or reducing the state and local tax deductions from federal taxes; and reducing the maximum home mortgage interest deductions from $1 million to $750,000. These changes will have a mixed effect on the sale of homes.

As this market continues to recover we get a better picture of what is truly happening with sales, prices and demand for homes here in the Coachella Valley. It’s clear that the recovery, while slow, really began locally in 2014.  In my quarterly report back then, I indicated that I thought we were recovering only to see a set-back in some price appreciation. Having done 57 quarterly reports over the past 15+ years, I have learned that often real market swings don’t truly show up until at least two years later. This was the case for the peak of the market in 2007 when it wasn’t until 2009 that the desert hit its all-time low in sales and price. With an 8.8% increase in total home sales in the Coachella Valley for 2017, we would have expected to see appreciation of homes higher than the actual 4.3%. Homes have not appreciated in value equally in all the desert communities. Some areas have experienced higher appreciation while other areas have experienced less. One reason for the lower appreciation is the number of homes on the market that are not highly upgraded or current with their remodel. Buyers tend to add their personal upgrades desired on to the price they are paying for the home.

We added a new page in this report that lists the total sales and appreciation by city and specific areas within each city. Indian Wells, Bermuda Dunes, Central Indio and Palm Desert South all realized greater price appreciation than the valley average of 4.3%. The total number of home sales were up in 2017 compared to 2016 in all areas except for La Quinta North. When looking at the country club appreciation report, over the past three years, twelve of the nineteen clubs saw price appreciation in 2016 with about the same number of homes sold as in 2015.  In 2017, the number of homes sold were much higher in all but one of the 19 golf course communities, however the average sales price was less in fourteen of the country clubs compared to 2016.

Looking at the Coachella Valley Home Sales Evaluation, 10,081 homes sold in 2017. This is the highest number of homes sold since 2012 and then back to 2004 and 2005. Homes selling for over $500,000 and over $1 Million represented 20%+ and 5.5%+ of the total homes sold from 2009 to 2014. Since 2014 the percentage of homes sold in all 4 categories have remained fairly consistent.

We have made the turn that transitions the real estate from a buyer’s market to a “seller’s market” here in the Coachella Valley. A “Seller’s Market.” is one with less than a six-month supply of homes on the market. Currently there are 3,753 single family homes and condos actively listed in the Multiple Listing Service. This is down 832 units compared to a year ago and a 4.5 month’s supply. The four highest selling communities in 2017 were Desert Hot Springs, Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage and Palm Springs. Palm Springs has surpassed their all-time high in 2006 and now has a median price of $635,000. Projections for 2018 indicate about the same price appreciation as we experienced in 2017. The number of homes sold in 2017 in the Valley was up 13.2%; single-family home sales up 12.7%; and condo sales up 14.1%.

The desert real estate market has become much more of a year-round market with 24.5% of the total sales closing in the first quarter; 30.1% in the second quarter; 22.5% in the third quarter and 22.6% in the fourth quarter. On the Country Club Home Sales Price Change and Appreciation report, it shows six golf course communities selling more than 142% of the homes sold compared to 2016. Fourteen of the golf course communities experienced a decrease in the average sales price in 2017. Comparing 2015 to 2016, approximately the same number of homes sold but it showed greater price appreciation.

According to the Multiple Listing Service, twenty-three homes sold in Toscana in 2016. In 2017, thirty-one homes sold. This is a 34.7% increase. The average sales price was up 14.3%. There are twenty-one homes listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service with five homes currently in escrow. Of the thirty-one homes that sold in 2017, four were spec homes and twenty-seven were resales. From the tax records, one home sold but was not listed in the Multiple Listing service for a total of thirty-two homes sold and twenty-one new homes sold in 2017. The increased activity is more than likely tied to the new membership programs that make it easier for memberships to sell and buyers have a greater comfort with their exit ability if for some reason they need to sell their membership.

Who you work with matters and when it comes to experience and exposure, no one comes close. We have worked with over 149 buyers and sellers (closed escrows) during the past two years. In 2017, we represented 83 buyers and sellers and $63,868,330 in sales volume keeping us in the top five in the valley out of nearly 4,000 agents. We remain the top-producing agents with Bennion Deville Homes. We attribute knowledge of the community, professional courtesy with our peers and outstanding personal service as well as attention to our clients for our continued success in sales and client representation within the community. Our #1 goal is customer satisfaction.

Our marketing programs extend beyond the community. While we do email our residents keeping them informed about homes that are available for sale, drawing buyers into the community requires marketing programs that reach far beyond just emails to residents. Our website and social media presence has tremendous draw and we continue to get more and more buyers from these sources. Combine this with the country club referrals and leads from their website, our representation of buyers far exceeds all the other agents who sell in Indian Ridge.

According to the Housing Market Report, buyers and sellers find their agent about 3.5% of the time through direct mail, 2.5% from yard signs, 4% on open houses and less than 1% from print ads and Magazines while about 75% of the time they find their agent through previous relationships and referrals.

Allison Renz, Heather Wong, Terrie Pena and I are available to meet with buyers to show property and provide property evaluations that help sellers make the right decision about their home. We are happy to meet with residents for a free market analysis and as always it will remain confidential. Kristeen Kidd, our office manager, handles and oversees all transactions and manages the office. Laura Flannery designs and coordinates our advertising and marketing (print media, web-based marketing, and social media) in collaboration with the entire team.

We look forward to a strong selling season in 2018 with more homes selling and prices rising. My team and I are always happy to meet and discuss the market with you.

Sincerely,

Diane R. Baxter

Associate Broker/Executive Luxury Director

Bennion Deville Homes

Indian Ridge On-Site Sales Office & Indian Wells Luxury Homes & Estates Division

CalBRE #01364828